* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 39 37 36 34 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 39 37 36 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 35 33 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 17 19 18 22 23 35 41 48 54 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 0 1 5 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 275 278 273 275 292 282 282 258 257 239 224 226 232 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 162 157 153 149 147 141 135 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 145 145 145 145 139 131 126 126 122 119 113 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 57 60 63 65 57 49 46 42 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 -7 -18 -22 -39 -36 -40 -44 -36 -56 -77 -93 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -9 -17 -3 20 33 16 1 21 24 35 27 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 6 3 3 3 -1 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 296 290 293 327 362 406 480 451 426 465 653 582 666 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.8 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.4 31.0 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.9 69.7 70.4 71.2 71.9 73.5 74.8 75.6 75.8 75.6 73.7 72.2 69.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 5 4 7 10 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 97 90 80 75 74 70 62 53 55 51 26 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 14. 12. 11. 9. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/07/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)