* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 45 47 49 48 47 46 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 45 47 49 48 47 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 40 42 44 44 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 9 13 14 20 25 25 31 44 59 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 1 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 316 298 298 275 264 296 274 290 258 259 223 217 226 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 161 161 159 155 149 142 135 128 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 143 144 144 145 141 135 128 123 120 117 111 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.8 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 56 60 60 64 67 64 57 51 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 22 20 7 -4 -30 -39 -35 -13 -21 -18 -44 -70 200 MB DIV -17 -3 -12 -6 -15 -2 27 36 35 43 72 59 81 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 4 2 4 4 0 -34 -21 LAND (KM) 359 324 284 289 311 422 557 639 684 728 636 788 886 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.0 21.9 22.2 22.5 23.6 24.9 26.2 27.6 29.0 31.0 33.2 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.3 67.9 68.5 69.1 69.7 70.9 72.0 72.9 73.2 72.9 71.4 67.8 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 9 15 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 76 89 99 96 84 71 61 41 46 28 28 17 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. -14. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 20. 22. 24. 23. 22. 21. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/07/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)