* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 49 55 55 56 59 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 49 55 55 56 59 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 48 50 52 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 13 13 15 19 22 25 22 25 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 331 343 301 285 298 291 305 269 286 267 281 248 255 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 158 158 161 161 160 158 156 156 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 143 141 141 144 144 141 136 132 131 130 132 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 55 56 61 65 63 59 50 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 28 19 15 -7 -29 -37 -38 -12 -22 -19 -22 200 MB DIV -2 -13 -20 -10 -11 -14 15 24 21 2 5 19 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 0 5 2 -4 -7 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 347 279 214 179 156 213 321 416 454 487 474 466 429 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.5 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.7 22.7 23.8 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.2 67.9 68.6 69.2 69.7 70.7 71.8 72.7 73.5 73.9 74.3 74.6 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 4 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 86 96 105 106 102 87 75 74 66 61 65 68 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 904 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 30. 30. 31. 34. 38. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/06/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)