* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 42 46 48 51 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 42 46 48 51 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 33 34 37 41 46 51 56 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 21 19 12 13 13 14 12 11 7 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 242 252 264 270 265 274 310 317 345 310 275 228 246 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 130 133 134 139 142 143 140 136 128 124 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 114 117 118 122 123 122 119 116 110 107 105 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 42 43 41 40 43 46 45 47 51 52 49 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -31 -50 -67 -79 -98 -138 -110 -97 -113 -136 -92 -33 200 MB DIV -5 -22 -15 -1 -15 -29 3 -13 18 -17 3 13 23 700-850 TADV 9 10 10 7 9 5 3 8 0 9 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 2296 2301 2276 2218 2163 2067 1995 1981 1860 1689 1539 1461 1511 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.8 25.2 26.2 27.4 28.7 30.1 31.7 33.3 34.8 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.1 44.7 45.4 46.1 47.5 48.9 49.9 50.3 49.9 48.5 45.7 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 9 12 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 26 27 32 37 30 33 24 16 9 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/28/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)