* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 44 49 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 44 49 55 57 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 41 46 52 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 16 16 15 16 10 14 6 8 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 244 238 237 258 263 234 281 276 294 246 258 213 199 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 130 132 136 140 143 142 139 132 125 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 114 115 116 120 123 124 122 119 113 108 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 44 45 42 43 42 41 41 43 47 47 53 51 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 11 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -21 -25 -44 -59 -79 -105 -110 -84 -98 -110 -99 -22 200 MB DIV -8 -5 -24 -23 -4 -11 -14 -2 24 8 12 37 51 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 8 6 12 6 7 8 -4 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 2237 2248 2260 2230 2171 2064 1969 1935 1944 1755 1557 1387 1301 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.5 25.4 26.5 27.9 29.3 31.0 32.9 34.9 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 43.8 44.4 45.1 45.8 47.2 48.7 49.9 50.7 50.8 49.9 47.7 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 12 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 18 20 24 38 32 29 26 16 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 25. 27. 29. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/28/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)