* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 41 43 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 41 43 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 44 46 49 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 4 11 8 15 16 17 22 25 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 -2 0 -3 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 199 205 243 211 234 243 201 233 206 229 238 253 266 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 125 127 128 130 133 137 146 152 154 155 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 113 114 116 118 121 125 132 136 136 135 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 50 45 45 42 41 40 37 35 36 38 39 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 19 21 19 13 -14 -25 -41 -62 -52 -35 -30 -33 200 MB DIV 2 -7 0 -3 -17 2 -7 -2 11 35 19 4 -23 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 7 6 2 9 6 6 6 8 9 5 LAND (KM) 2076 2057 2041 2021 2005 1926 1760 1556 1367 1202 1111 1045 995 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.8 24.4 25.1 25.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.1 43.8 44.6 45.4 47.2 49.4 51.6 53.9 56.1 57.8 59.3 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 19 15 14 21 32 31 33 34 34 41 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/28/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)