* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 42 43 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 42 43 45 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 43 48 53 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 10 12 12 11 11 14 11 20 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -1 1 1 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 227 235 217 238 255 238 265 214 261 235 265 256 281 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 124 125 127 128 131 134 138 142 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 111 112 112 113 116 119 122 124 127 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 46 45 42 37 40 39 36 37 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 7 4 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 20 12 9 11 -10 -30 -57 -78 -90 -85 -98 200 MB DIV -1 -8 0 -1 -8 -15 -3 3 4 11 4 -2 7 700-850 TADV 8 10 7 3 5 8 1 7 -4 4 5 12 6 LAND (KM) 2149 2144 2145 2133 2124 2094 1983 1801 1603 1437 1287 1178 1115 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 41.6 42.4 43.2 43.9 45.4 47.2 49.2 51.4 53.5 55.6 57.5 59.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 7 14 16 15 19 28 30 29 27 25 33 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/27/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)