* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 39 42 45 48 49 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 39 42 45 48 49 48 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 44 48 52 57 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 6 3 4 8 13 9 10 11 12 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 4 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 196 193 251 236 219 246 228 255 216 247 251 272 281 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 120 121 125 127 129 129 131 134 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 111 111 111 113 115 116 116 116 118 117 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 56 53 49 44 43 41 38 38 40 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 10 8 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 36 20 16 16 1 -4 -37 -59 -91 -113 -103 -93 200 MB DIV -4 3 -4 -3 12 3 -3 0 -14 -7 -12 12 0 700-850 TADV 9 6 6 11 8 5 8 2 7 3 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 2159 2192 2183 2177 2179 2163 2142 2035 1862 1718 1619 1558 1580 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.3 25.2 26.1 26.9 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 38.6 39.7 40.6 41.5 43.3 45.0 46.9 48.9 50.8 52.4 53.7 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 2 12 17 24 21 17 20 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 19. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/27/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)