* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 49 52 56 57 57 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 49 52 56 57 57 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 45 48 52 55 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 9 3 11 11 16 9 14 17 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 0 3 1 -1 1 0 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 212 202 239 251 253 244 224 241 255 273 313 317 306 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 119 120 120 123 125 126 126 128 130 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 112 112 111 110 111 112 111 112 112 113 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 63 58 56 57 52 53 47 44 45 47 48 55 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 70 61 38 24 21 0 -9 -34 -61 -98 -132 -106 -91 200 MB DIV 3 -5 8 3 4 18 13 -11 -1 -5 12 -5 37 700-850 TADV 8 8 7 6 10 7 10 8 6 9 7 10 10 LAND (KM) 2057 2163 2224 2224 2228 2259 2282 2229 2116 2061 2077 1931 1799 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.7 23.7 24.5 25.5 26.7 28.3 29.7 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.6 38.7 39.7 40.7 42.2 43.7 45.2 46.7 47.8 48.5 48.5 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 2 6 15 25 35 29 30 27 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 22. 26. 27. 27. 25. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/26/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)