* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 52 54 56 54 51 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 52 54 56 54 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 44 48 51 55 59 62 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 5 4 3 11 9 13 8 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 4 3 5 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 133 253 143 218 263 265 241 230 247 212 259 273 308 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 118 119 120 122 124 125 126 127 130 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 117 115 112 112 111 110 111 111 111 111 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 67 67 63 61 56 54 48 46 47 44 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 77 63 62 54 32 16 -10 -11 -47 -62 -93 -127 -130 200 MB DIV 15 -2 6 -7 -1 4 28 15 -4 9 -17 0 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -2 3 6 3 14 7 11 10 5 9 9 11 LAND (KM) 1750 1889 2031 2150 2203 2212 2253 2286 2291 2202 2174 2064 1917 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.4 21.0 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.4 38.5 40.4 41.8 43.2 44.6 45.9 46.8 47.3 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 4 13 19 26 25 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 22. 24. 26. 24. 21. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/26/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)