* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 53 58 62 63 63 63 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 53 58 62 63 63 63 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 56 61 66 69 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 5 2 8 12 11 10 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 4 0 3 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 358 192 250 115 220 299 279 255 231 262 265 303 304 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 121 120 119 119 121 123 125 125 126 130 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 116 114 112 111 110 111 112 111 112 113 116 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 70 65 65 63 57 54 51 47 46 47 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 113 100 85 80 74 30 29 -3 -6 -42 -64 -100 -121 200 MB DIV 48 31 8 21 12 11 16 9 -6 0 5 -9 7 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 0 4 7 12 9 9 4 11 11 10 LAND (KM) 1685 1814 1945 2063 2151 2141 2179 2209 2273 2244 2204 2101 1924 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.6 21.2 22.4 23.7 25.0 26.6 28.5 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.2 34.4 35.6 36.7 37.7 39.7 41.2 42.6 43.9 45.2 46.2 46.6 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 0 0 0 3 7 17 21 26 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 23. 28. 32. 33. 33. 33. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/26/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)