* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 49 58 64 70 72 74 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 49 58 64 70 72 74 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 43 53 61 68 73 76 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 2 6 4 1 1 4 8 7 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 43 41 61 32 70 290 41 237 235 248 196 235 241 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 129 125 122 119 119 121 125 128 128 129 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 129 126 121 118 112 111 111 114 116 115 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 75 71 71 69 65 64 56 52 45 47 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 116 108 90 77 71 42 28 13 20 -7 -20 -48 -75 200 MB DIV 42 46 32 11 31 9 26 12 28 0 8 6 -9 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -6 -3 3 4 9 10 11 5 10 6 8 LAND (KM) 1516 1615 1718 1841 1967 2137 2127 2127 2129 2143 2029 1901 1815 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.7 16.5 18.1 19.6 20.9 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.1 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.7 35.8 37.9 39.9 41.6 43.4 45.2 47.1 48.8 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 5 1 0 0 4 12 25 30 43 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 33. 39. 45. 47. 49. 49. 48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/25/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)