* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 42 50 56 61 66 70 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 42 50 56 61 66 70 69 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 36 45 53 60 67 73 77 79 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 5 5 2 3 4 7 10 10 8 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 -2 0 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 45 42 60 73 87 245 294 236 241 232 237 214 270 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 132 128 125 119 119 120 123 127 128 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 134 130 125 121 113 112 111 113 116 115 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 71 70 66 60 58 57 48 48 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 118 110 101 80 65 49 13 22 3 -4 -36 -57 -97 200 MB DIV 35 32 31 28 3 -5 7 4 -5 -3 0 -26 -14 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -6 -5 -5 10 7 8 3 5 0 9 0 LAND (KM) 1422 1505 1593 1707 1825 2062 2181 2190 2177 2186 2078 1933 1828 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.8 17.7 19.3 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.0 25.2 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.4 32.3 33.4 34.5 36.6 38.7 40.6 42.5 44.5 46.6 48.5 50.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 10 5 0 0 0 7 20 29 45 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 237 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 25. 31. 36. 41. 45. 44. 44. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)