* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 52 56 60 61 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 52 56 60 61 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 45 50 54 60 67 73 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 5 3 4 8 7 8 4 7 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 2 0 3 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 49 58 72 117 126 233 260 261 244 216 238 223 268 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 133 128 124 118 118 120 122 125 126 127 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 131 125 120 113 112 111 112 113 113 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 75 78 74 72 67 63 61 54 50 44 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 103 99 94 91 74 66 35 29 19 17 -8 -33 -75 200 MB DIV 40 36 32 45 29 20 -6 16 1 9 0 2 -31 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -4 7 10 11 8 4 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1142 1261 1386 1519 1655 1945 2183 2189 2180 2193 2182 2050 1962 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.6 19.0 20.5 21.8 22.9 23.8 24.7 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.2 30.4 31.7 32.9 35.5 37.8 40.1 42.1 43.9 45.5 47.1 48.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 5 13 24 32 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 22. 27. 31. 35. 36. 38. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/25/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)