* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 49 53 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 49 53 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 46 50 54 58 62 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 11 8 15 17 19 17 14 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -4 -2 -5 -6 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 100 93 107 135 164 210 225 257 238 254 221 198 186 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 131 124 118 117 119 121 125 127 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 135 130 122 114 111 111 111 113 115 116 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 76 76 79 78 76 70 64 60 57 53 49 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 117 103 90 81 78 68 54 35 31 13 5 -14 -27 200 MB DIV 48 32 31 32 43 5 -2 1 4 -11 -13 14 8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 1 3 6 5 3 1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 991 1083 1183 1321 1465 1782 2051 2252 2206 2153 2128 1992 1836 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.3 17.9 19.4 20.6 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.8 31.1 33.9 36.6 39.3 41.5 43.5 45.3 47.3 49.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 14 16 15 16 14 13 11 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 3 11 25 29 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 309 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 24. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)