* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 54 60 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 54 60 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 42 45 48 52 56 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 12 12 13 12 18 14 19 15 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 102 102 128 133 146 232 242 258 265 274 276 272 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 136 132 121 118 118 120 122 128 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 135 135 130 118 113 112 113 114 118 121 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 77 79 77 71 67 68 64 54 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 107 91 85 81 67 58 40 27 28 29 16 -1 200 MB DIV 45 44 36 26 53 42 33 0 1 -4 -8 2 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 4 11 8 9 7 6 1 2 LAND (KM) 811 901 998 1129 1267 1552 1862 2137 2135 2045 1987 1944 1778 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.1 16.5 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.7 26.7 28.0 29.3 31.9 34.7 37.3 39.9 42.2 44.5 46.7 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 25 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 246 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 64.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 37. 37. 37. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 64.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)