* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 41 40 40 38 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 41 40 40 38 36 37 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 34 33 31 30 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 14 13 20 26 29 34 36 28 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 3 4 0 1 -1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 82 109 132 168 175 203 251 241 256 253 269 255 273 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.3 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 133 130 119 116 119 122 127 131 134 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 134 133 130 117 112 114 116 119 123 126 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 79 75 72 67 61 57 52 51 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 105 94 84 73 78 65 54 46 44 35 35 25 200 MB DIV 34 43 41 53 40 36 24 -3 0 -3 -9 -11 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 6 14 17 20 18 13 8 0 -4 LAND (KM) 658 720 792 929 1075 1426 1789 2121 2162 2052 1952 1754 1458 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.6 21.6 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 23.2 24.0 24.8 26.2 27.5 30.6 33.9 37.3 40.5 43.4 46.3 49.0 52.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 13 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 19 32 29 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 397 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -12. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. 11. 12. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED