* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 40 40 39 37 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 40 40 39 37 36 37 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 33 33 32 31 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 17 18 16 16 19 24 31 27 31 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 125 120 139 157 187 191 221 236 242 247 258 258 279 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 133 129 126 118 116 118 120 124 130 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 134 132 128 125 116 112 113 114 117 121 124 126 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 75 75 69 62 56 53 51 48 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 12 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 108 101 95 81 77 69 56 54 47 44 45 37 200 MB DIV 20 31 43 40 47 21 20 -3 -5 7 -3 5 -17 700-850 TADV 7 3 4 4 5 7 2 2 7 11 4 5 1 LAND (KM) 403 510 633 798 967 1369 1737 2074 2144 2006 1909 1817 1625 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.6 18.5 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.9 26.4 30.0 33.4 36.8 39.9 42.7 45.3 47.7 50.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 15 16 17 18 17 16 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 17 29 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 12. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED