* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 06/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 53 57 59 57 56 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 53 57 59 57 56 54 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 43 49 52 55 55 53 50 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 4 6 13 15 19 24 32 32 41 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 2 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 77 177 186 278 244 257 243 263 263 267 258 280 270 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 129 130 133 136 140 141 145 145 140 143 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 130 133 137 143 144 148 147 141 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 14 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 50 48 50 46 46 48 45 53 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 9 17 20 22 23 17 17 5 33 0 8 200 MB DIV 27 33 26 22 8 13 22 0 26 -4 24 19 44 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 4 6 11 15 11 9 6 -3 LAND (KM) 929 857 800 752 725 593 334 322 405 323 168 140 -15 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.8 50.0 51.4 52.7 55.8 58.9 62.1 65.3 68.4 71.6 74.7 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 31 30 38 52 38 45 49 36 50 52 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 32. 31. 29. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 06/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 06/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)