* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 09/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 28 30 30 30 29 29 30 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 28 30 30 30 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 10 9 13 17 19 20 23 24 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 234 235 226 210 216 228 231 244 253 271 269 280 272 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 133 134 132 131 131 131 131 133 135 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 122 122 123 121 119 119 118 118 121 124 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 36 36 36 38 41 41 43 45 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -18 -21 -18 -29 -27 -26 -33 -33 -28 -44 -67 200 MB DIV 19 8 7 10 -1 11 11 14 3 4 7 -10 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 10 LAND (KM) 1351 1335 1318 1321 1326 1364 1398 1435 1466 1489 1516 1564 1573 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.2 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.3 45.5 45.9 46.3 46.7 47.1 47.7 48.4 49.3 50.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 22 21 17 13 11 11 15 27 42 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 09/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 09/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 09/25/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)