* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 09/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 32 34 36 36 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 32 34 36 36 35 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 27 26 28 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 10 18 34 31 26 25 26 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 15 14 8 8 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 60 43 29 326 290 273 247 243 233 270 280 285 272 SST (C) 28.0 27.2 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 130 124 120 116 112 113 114 120 121 119 114 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 133 124 120 115 108 107 105 106 103 101 97 96 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.5 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 55 53 48 44 45 51 52 49 47 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 8 7 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 49 50 35 20 -18 -67 -51 -54 -67 -61 -63 200 MB DIV 0 1 10 11 20 10 -12 4 31 12 -12 -14 -22 700-850 TADV -1 4 7 19 29 40 60 55 30 14 0 -7 -39 LAND (KM) 265 498 732 975 1165 1544 1864 2157 2299 2110 2104 2077 1930 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 21.3 23.9 26.6 29.2 31.3 32.4 31.9 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 19.7 21.8 23.8 25.9 28.0 31.9 35.0 37.6 39.1 38.8 37.0 35.0 34.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 21 21 22 22 20 19 16 12 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 09/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 09/01/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)