* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 08/31/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 27 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 29 27 25 24 25 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 10 8 7 16 30 30 22 19 26 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 15 13 10 2 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 44 30 4 318 284 249 246 253 269 255 259 244 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.9 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 127 121 117 111 110 111 113 112 109 105 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 128 121 116 107 104 101 99 97 96 94 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 -55.6 -55.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 56 54 48 40 40 48 51 48 41 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 43 39 36 12 -33 -90 -132 -137 -132 -99 -53 200 MB DIV 13 2 -2 5 16 4 12 -8 30 7 -11 -12 -28 700-850 TADV -2 2 8 18 23 35 45 59 34 3 -31 -57 -47 LAND (KM) 152 360 572 816 1019 1379 1689 1930 2064 2023 1774 1559 1425 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.0 18.9 21.0 23.7 26.5 28.9 30.6 30.3 28.4 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 20.4 22.3 24.4 26.5 30.3 33.3 35.3 36.0 34.8 32.3 30.7 30.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 21 22 21 20 18 14 11 9 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. 0. -3. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 08/31/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 08/31/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)