* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 08/31/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 48 52 48 45 43 44 43 V (KT) LAND 30 36 39 41 44 48 51 54 51 47 46 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 39 41 43 48 52 56 56 54 50 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 25 22 18 12 8 10 27 31 23 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 3 3 9 5 6 0 -2 -6 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 62 58 60 53 40 328 256 228 229 213 242 232 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 142 139 133 125 117 114 114 116 120 123 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 140 138 133 125 115 110 108 108 109 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 62 60 56 49 46 42 39 43 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 8 8 9 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 59 69 70 68 46 35 -4 -38 -79 -90 -111 200 MB DIV 33 32 26 11 25 2 14 14 -7 0 1 -7 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -4 -1 9 19 25 43 41 38 34 8 LAND (KM) -15 45 139 300 463 878 1305 1636 1944 2235 2395 2139 1987 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.8 17.0 18.5 20.1 22.4 24.9 27.5 29.5 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 16.7 17.8 18.8 20.3 21.7 25.4 29.2 32.7 35.8 38.6 40.8 42.1 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 17 19 19 18 18 17 14 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 7 2 1 3 0 0 0 2 8 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 22. 18. 15. 13. 14. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 08/31/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 08/31/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)