* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 08/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 28 31 39 46 56 60 63 62 62 58 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 30 33 42 48 58 62 65 64 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 27 28 29 33 38 46 56 64 66 62 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 20 18 15 16 9 4 5 11 24 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 3 3 3 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 80 68 70 74 70 67 71 84 182 224 227 240 234 SST (C) 27.7 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 142 143 142 138 128 127 124 120 117 116 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 139 140 138 135 125 123 120 115 111 110 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 62 59 55 52 52 52 51 47 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 13 12 13 11 12 10 11 11 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 85 90 97 96 93 92 85 93 78 62 37 4 -39 200 MB DIV 29 38 35 40 40 15 -2 5 17 21 12 15 16 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -7 -6 -2 2 2 11 14 33 46 46 LAND (KM) -150 -58 44 174 305 610 923 1225 1508 1787 2024 2267 2445 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.2 19.8 21.8 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 15.5 16.7 17.9 19.1 20.3 23.1 26.0 28.8 31.4 33.9 36.4 38.9 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 9 14 19 6 2 3 4 1 1 2 0 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 19. 26. 36. 40. 43. 42. 42. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 08/30/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 08/30/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)