* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 30 31 34 37 38 36 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 30 31 34 37 38 36 30 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 32 35 37 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 19 18 23 26 20 19 22 31 56 52 44 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 -3 -4 0 2 21 20 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 270 279 271 280 292 297 295 263 250 209 191 197 205 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.7 26.4 25.1 23.2 11.3 5.2 4.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 148 146 135 121 112 100 71 64 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 135 134 133 123 112 105 93 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -52.0 -48.7 -47.6 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 6 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 52 49 47 54 50 53 61 71 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 -6 -14 -26 -38 -79 -80 68 211 406 337 223 200 MB DIV 32 42 25 16 5 14 18 17 60 112 160 100 29 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 6 7 7 6 12 -31 -192 -120 -17 -33 LAND (KM) 200 248 299 377 457 693 968 1353 1100 551 -3 13 146 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.7 22.4 24.4 26.7 30.0 34.6 40.9 47.6 52.0 53.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.6 63.8 62.8 61.6 59.9 57.8 56.4 55.6 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 12 15 20 29 33 28 15 8 HEAT CONTENT 64 69 74 70 55 34 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 6. 3. 3. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/30/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)