* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 18 23 25 24 26 38 52 64 66 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 1 -3 -5 -9 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 239 242 237 223 232 254 258 269 256 244 238 243 247 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.6 24.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 120 116 113 108 105 107 111 113 113 108 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 115 111 107 105 100 95 96 101 104 105 100 95 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 57 55 48 46 44 42 44 41 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 41 44 42 23 3 -1 1 1 10 15 -8 200 MB DIV 24 33 36 48 59 44 31 0 9 23 26 24 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 3 5 9 10 8 7 0 0 11 20 LAND (KM) 423 483 547 621 697 814 843 840 744 614 466 365 251 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 19.0 20.5 21.9 23.4 25.1 27.4 30.1 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 24.5 25.1 25.1 24.0 21.9 18.9 15.8 12.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 11 15 19 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -14. -22. -30. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -15. -21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/21/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)