* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 38 41 40 38 34 29 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 38 41 40 38 34 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 38 39 40 40 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 13 14 17 13 16 14 17 20 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -4 -5 -3 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 351 217 222 240 240 220 224 221 233 232 245 250 255 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 134 131 128 125 122 119 115 112 111 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 128 125 121 117 113 109 105 102 99 97 96 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 67 64 65 65 61 56 56 53 50 46 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 37 28 33 27 38 46 44 64 50 48 27 27 22 200 MB DIV 1 4 2 -8 4 36 47 58 38 39 52 34 24 700-850 TADV -4 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 3 3 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 324 371 423 493 569 701 826 933 1034 1120 1124 1075 1047 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.8 24.0 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 15. 13. 9. 4. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/19/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)