* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 33 39 44 47 52 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 33 39 44 47 52 54 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 31 34 38 42 48 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 6 11 10 7 4 6 4 3 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 6 1 -4 1 4 5 5 7 6 5 SHEAR DIR 18 25 287 245 263 250 241 200 210 137 140 96 183 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 131 129 130 130 130 129 131 128 125 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 130 125 123 122 120 119 118 121 118 115 110 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 72 67 66 65 64 60 59 57 55 52 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 16 15 16 15 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 45 51 41 55 56 66 61 59 52 34 31 200 MB DIV 19 5 5 31 14 8 46 61 52 33 21 -11 31 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -1 -5 -6 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 294 383 446 514 589 728 834 900 904 856 796 763 753 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 24.2 25.2 25.8 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 1 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 4 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 32. 34. 35. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/19/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)