* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/21/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 23 24 27 30 33 37 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 23 24 27 30 33 37 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 29 33 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 2 10 19 13 7 4 6 6 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 7 5 1 4 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 351 4 253 210 233 277 279 331 257 300 245 295 307 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 149 150 150 150 150 151 150 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 128 126 125 125 124 125 125 126 128 129 131 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 7 7 7 3 6 2 8 5 11 7 12 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 61 54 46 41 41 40 40 38 37 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 57 43 34 25 18 17 4 5 19 11 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 50 43 24 16 11 -25 -18 10 -1 1 4 1 1 700-850 TADV 6 4 -1 -4 -6 -6 -9 0 -2 0 -3 0 8 LAND (KM) 61 45 26 41 54 100 109 96 80 83 27 -63 -134 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.0 96.8 96.4 96.3 96.4 96.4 96.4 97.0 97.9 98.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 26 24 28 29 28 28 25 25 13 42 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/21/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/21/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/21/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)