* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/20/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 38 35 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 31 33 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 31 34 28 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 16 14 17 7 27 34 41 50 52 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 4 4 1 2 0 -1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 14 337 341 310 242 282 289 277 280 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 26.7 25.3 23.9 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 153 154 156 151 122 109 99 91 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 138 138 139 132 106 95 87 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -49.7 -49.8 -49.9 -50.7 -51.3 -52.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 15 11 8 3 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 69 64 50 34 27 23 24 28 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 74 62 33 -20 -48 -42 -51 -46 -79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 37 60 65 25 38 1 0 0 10 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 8 8 1 -3 4 -2 7 36 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 66 20 7 -31 0 -145 -298 -482 -702 -955 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 20 23 42 42 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -8. -15. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -7. -16. -24. -28. -32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/20/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/20/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/20/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED