* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 41 39 36 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 41 39 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 39 31 28 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 16 13 13 11 17 18 26 36 42 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 -1 3 -4 -1 -1 3 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 1 2 10 15 351 7 271 288 286 288 275 276 N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 27.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 148 148 152 152 154 156 151 130 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 133 131 129 132 131 133 134 129 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 13 14 9 10 4 5 0 6 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 71 74 68 59 47 43 42 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 36 31 52 62 30 -3 -12 -39 -10 -10 N/A 200 MB DIV 19 24 10 30 56 21 42 13 12 4 3 -2 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -3 2 4 3 -2 0 4 6 17 0 N/A LAND (KM) 190 176 136 124 112 61 34 4 70 5 -74 -228 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 22 24 24 28 23 23 43 24 7 34 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 14. 11. 6. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/20/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/20/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/20/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED