* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 40 44 48 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 40 44 33 34 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 44 34 30 41 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 20 15 11 7 13 6 11 7 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 -5 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 7 360 2 10 21 343 324 293 330 306 315 295 303 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 147 146 146 145 145 145 146 148 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 133 132 129 124 123 123 123 124 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 12 12 11 10 11 11 12 13 14 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 74 78 78 79 78 77 72 69 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 52 40 36 65 55 45 23 14 1 14 11 200 MB DIV 20 37 33 14 21 31 10 24 6 8 8 26 -2 700-850 TADV -2 2 -1 -2 1 -2 2 1 1 -2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 211 178 134 96 94 40 40 30 0 -20 0 15 22 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 5 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 23 24 24 20 20 19 8 49 9 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/19/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/19/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/19/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)