* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 33 38 42 49 53 56 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 33 38 42 49 53 56 59 62 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 55 64 72 78 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 13 17 13 9 5 6 12 13 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 2 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 345 3 13 9 12 46 3 44 344 36 22 51 10 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 147 145 144 144 145 145 145 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 135 135 131 126 123 125 126 126 127 130 131 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 12 10 12 11 11 10 11 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 75 76 76 78 80 80 79 77 73 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 73 70 75 70 64 88 84 90 84 78 52 67 200 MB DIV 33 28 25 22 41 28 45 27 32 16 15 30 17 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 2 1 2 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 195 224 209 173 124 60 58 44 29 40 50 78 130 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 13 20 23 21 18 18 14 18 19 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 8. 13. 17. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/19/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/19/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)