* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/19/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 49 54 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 49 54 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 56 64 71 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 13 11 15 4 6 4 8 10 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -1 0 -1 3 0 -1 0 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 334 341 355 9 355 18 2 359 246 311 289 349 349 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 148 147 146 147 148 148 150 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 135 134 132 129 125 126 128 128 131 133 135 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -50.1 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 12 9 13 9 12 8 11 7 10 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 70 72 74 76 81 78 69 57 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 66 63 75 61 57 66 72 62 40 25 28 200 MB DIV 30 35 13 21 27 20 39 28 50 11 1 -15 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -7 -3 5 -2 1 0 -2 2 -4 1 -1 LAND (KM) 157 234 294 290 237 168 194 214 239 284 350 364 246 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 1 3 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 14 18 23 23 24 23 24 28 31 35 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 34. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/19/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/19/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/19/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)