* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 43 48 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 43 48 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 46 54 60 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 15 15 15 15 9 3 11 8 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -1 1 0 0 -4 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 6 341 346 351 9 355 26 351 40 288 321 317 350 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 151 151 150 146 147 149 150 150 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 137 138 136 131 125 125 128 128 128 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 10 10 12 11 10 8 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 71 70 73 74 81 79 71 60 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 74 80 86 68 61 65 41 78 80 73 43 34 22 200 MB DIV 63 50 35 -6 2 26 15 32 28 19 -1 -8 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 -8 -6 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 80 176 272 362 288 214 143 153 204 255 296 377 423 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 5 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 15 18 28 34 29 29 29 30 31 33 37 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/18/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED