* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 50 55 61 64 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 31 34 38 44 49 54 60 63 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 30 32 37 43 51 59 68 76 82 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 12 7 11 9 7 9 7 5 6 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 2 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 339 355 8 339 329 359 346 43 355 36 331 8 353 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 152 150 149 148 147 145 146 149 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 138 141 137 134 130 127 124 126 130 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 73 74 73 77 76 81 80 75 64 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 67 71 72 71 70 66 70 55 73 79 81 58 57 200 MB DIV 44 63 73 42 23 8 30 40 62 41 34 12 6 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 3 -2 0 3 0 0 0 0 -4 1 LAND (KM) -129 -95 -24 76 178 332 258 190 163 187 269 338 355 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 9 7 4 3 1 2 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 23 22 21 13 22 34 37 37 38 39 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 30. 36. 39. 42. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/18/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/18/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)