* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 52 58 63 67 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 31 35 41 49 55 60 64 67 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 30 32 38 47 56 66 74 80 84 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 13 1 7 3 9 5 10 3 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 2 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 1 349 357 17 15 351 357 355 325 335 212 31 104 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 149 151 151 149 149 148 146 144 145 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 138 140 139 136 134 131 125 123 127 127 127 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 12 9 13 10 13 9 12 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 73 74 75 76 76 78 81 75 71 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 70 72 76 70 72 50 60 77 68 56 37 200 MB DIV 27 44 47 61 43 31 49 38 58 36 20 15 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 2 -3 3 -2 0 -1 -4 0 -5 LAND (KM) -69 -143 -62 32 126 278 248 158 112 92 92 30 33 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.0 22.9 22.4 21.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.3 90.0 90.9 91.7 93.3 94.8 96.0 96.7 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 8 7 5 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 66 18 22 19 15 16 35 37 29 26 27 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 27. 33. 38. 42. 45. 47. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/18/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED