* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 55 62 68 72 75 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 37 46 54 59 47 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 35 44 55 67 56 37 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 10 12 5 5 5 8 6 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 -4 2 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 355 3 354 18 28 335 48 333 32 9 75 75 80 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 150 152 154 152 151 149 146 146 147 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 139 141 142 140 138 135 130 128 130 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 75 76 75 78 78 80 78 75 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 80 76 76 84 80 81 64 76 71 69 44 200 MB DIV 37 35 47 40 50 38 49 38 26 53 28 33 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 1 0 -1 2 4 1 LAND (KM) -10 -79 -139 -62 0 89 162 111 31 -29 -103 -202 -301 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.1 20.9 20.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.0 89.6 90.4 91.1 92.6 94.2 95.6 96.8 97.6 98.3 99.1 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 32 11 14 13 26 23 58 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 37. 43. 47. 50. 53. 55. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED