* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 63 68 73 75 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 37 45 52 58 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 26 35 43 54 66 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 7 9 4 6 3 9 4 11 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 339 10 12 351 20 170 360 84 30 352 353 357 17 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 150 152 152 151 149 147 146 147 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 138 139 141 141 139 136 132 129 130 132 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 8 12 9 13 10 13 9 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 79 79 78 76 76 77 77 80 77 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 75 83 86 84 73 80 74 75 60 55 72 54 51 200 MB DIV 39 28 29 30 32 33 41 33 35 45 46 24 26 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -2 2 -1 4 -3 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 0 -52 -130 -74 -4 111 191 119 12 -65 -146 -241 -349 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.7 89.4 90.1 90.8 92.4 94.0 95.7 97.2 98.4 99.2 100.1 101.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 68 0 27 34 15 13 29 18 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 38. 43. 48. 50. 51. 54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/17/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)