* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 09/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 44 51 58 62 67 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 35 42 49 54 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 34 40 50 62 47 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 12 8 12 1 5 3 4 1 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 318 324 344 5 5 8 333 15 148 32 298 359 323 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 150 152 152 151 149 147 147 148 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 135 137 139 140 138 137 134 132 130 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 11 7 13 9 13 9 13 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 78 78 77 77 77 80 82 82 83 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 70 76 76 80 84 83 95 88 81 73 72 76 64 200 MB DIV 32 41 17 26 18 30 30 53 56 60 54 49 37 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 2 -2 3 -3 3 -2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) -30 -90 -130 -63 2 111 178 147 31 -60 -161 -238 -331 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.0 89.5 90.1 90.7 92.1 93.6 95.2 96.8 98.2 99.4 100.2 101.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 67 0 19 26 29 18 14 26 27 56 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 26. 33. 37. 42. 46. 49. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)