* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 08/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 46 50 56 57 58 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 4 7 8 10 17 29 20 25 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 4 1 4 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 266 248 254 328 346 274 307 304 346 14 45 70 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 163 163 163 163 164 161 159 160 155 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 148 148 149 148 147 144 140 138 138 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 11 10 9 13 10 13 9 13 9 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 76 76 74 75 73 64 56 49 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 8 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 62 54 54 38 19 7 -40 -49 -38 -48 N/A 200 MB DIV 40 62 59 66 62 67 27 61 12 -7 0 -40 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 -3 -5 3 3 6 7 1 2 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 121 112 86 62 38 -63 -169 -308 -356 -366 -396 -427 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 27 27 25 24 56 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 25. 31. 32. 33. 33. 34. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 08/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 08/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 08/25/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)