* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 08/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 52 56 60 60 60 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 4 1 2 4 2 6 7 15 23 26 27 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 7 6 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 258 279 173 220 325 95 255 279 328 360 19 42 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 162 163 163 163 163 164 163 161 162 160 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 151 150 150 150 148 146 142 139 140 138 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 12 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 77 75 76 76 77 72 66 59 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 60 59 52 48 37 -3 -10 -16 -47 -54 N/A 200 MB DIV 37 45 62 66 65 47 43 44 34 25 18 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 0 -7 -1 -3 7 5 4 1 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 55 129 128 90 52 -60 -205 -362 -391 -409 -416 -482 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 9 8 6 5 4 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 24 30 29 26 57 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 31. 35. 35. 35. 35. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 08/25/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 08/25/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 08/25/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)