* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 08/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 39 46 51 53 57 60 59 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 27 29 32 30 28 27 27 31 34 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 31 35 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 8 2 3 3 3 6 7 8 13 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 1 0 -3 0 1 3 0 -2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 256 270 293 261 244 64 180 226 231 246 273 316 306 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 29.3 24.9 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 161 163 164 168 170 172 172 158 106 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 151 153 154 155 158 160 164 163 146 96 75 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 12 8 12 9 11 7 9 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 75 76 78 78 80 80 75 71 67 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 10 9 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 36 45 51 44 35 25 26 23 37 38 58 200 MB DIV 48 19 35 59 54 45 71 51 70 22 44 32 0 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 0 2 -3 -3 5 1 2 -3 -7 3 LAND (KM) -67 -16 57 83 63 -96 -253 -301 -98 37 53 50 156 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 92.3 93.5 94.6 95.7 97.9 100.1 102.4 104.8 107.3 109.9 112.6 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 28 18 24 25 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 19. 26. 31. 33. 37. 40. 39. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 08/25/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 08/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 08/25/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED