* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 08/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 35 46 52 57 61 65 66 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 29 31 29 27 27 27 31 34 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 28 30 28 27 27 27 31 37 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 7 4 3 1 4 5 4 9 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -4 -2 -3 2 0 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 273 254 267 279 270 354 93 145 205 249 261 285 275 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 29.5 26.7 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 157 159 160 164 168 172 172 172 161 122 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 151 151 153 156 159 162 164 166 150 112 86 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 78 76 78 76 79 82 78 74 71 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 28 28 34 40 39 40 40 16 19 36 46 51 200 MB DIV 51 45 28 34 50 64 57 45 42 48 30 21 16 700-850 TADV -1 4 2 -1 0 -2 0 0 4 2 4 -9 0 LAND (KM) -139 -88 -30 28 14 -92 -246 -301 -138 56 90 64 197 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.9 93.0 94.1 95.1 97.3 99.4 101.7 103.9 106.2 108.7 111.3 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 16 5 1 1 3 5 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 26. 32. 37. 41. 45. 46. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 08/24/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 08/24/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 08/24/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED