* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 08/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 33 43 49 55 61 64 66 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 30 31 28 27 27 27 33 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 25 29 29 28 27 27 27 35 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 11 6 5 4 1 3 8 9 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 2 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 289 288 256 275 298 266 1 325 252 329 305 312 299 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.9 27.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 157 159 163 166 170 172 172 169 134 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 154 154 151 152 155 157 161 165 166 159 125 93 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 7 12 8 12 8 11 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 77 76 78 77 80 79 77 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 7 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 25 25 29 40 32 15 26 8 23 53 65 200 MB DIV 30 42 48 17 22 53 33 49 39 41 22 20 11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 5 2 0 4 0 1 6 -3 1 -9 2 LAND (KM) -119 -145 -88 -37 29 -19 -193 -294 -218 -12 187 52 210 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 90.7 91.8 93.0 94.1 96.3 98.6 100.8 103.1 105.4 107.9 110.6 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 30 27 16 4 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 29. 35. 41. 44. 46. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 08/24/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 08/24/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 08/24/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED