* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 51 56 58 61 63 64 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 51 56 58 61 61 42 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 49 54 58 61 61 42 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 10 9 7 16 18 26 20 24 22 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 6 4 3 1 2 0 3 1 2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 174 281 316 299 284 306 293 288 261 282 272 293 277 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 136 139 143 145 145 148 152 147 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 151 149 151 154 154 149 148 147 136 131 130 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 59 60 57 55 58 59 61 66 65 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 45 50 45 22 23 0 7 -34 -55 -70 -37 200 MB DIV -10 -18 -1 16 28 8 28 29 63 60 20 25 33 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -2 0 6 3 5 10 1 -4 0 8 4 LAND (KM) 882 768 692 666 597 315 333 188 37 26 0 96 171 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 14 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 30 39 28 44 37 18 25 26 32 6 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/08/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)