* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 51 57 60 62 64 66 68 70 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 51 57 60 62 63 54 51 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 51 55 59 63 63 55 56 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 11 9 16 18 24 19 26 24 24 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 5 3 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 28 243 284 301 303 294 308 288 298 289 294 289 288 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 136 136 140 146 145 147 152 153 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 149 150 149 152 156 152 149 148 145 145 145 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 9 10 12 11 13 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 59 56 56 56 55 61 67 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 50 46 48 28 20 6 5 -9 -36 -51 -33 200 MB DIV 4 -7 -5 0 9 30 25 12 47 54 49 17 39 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -1 -1 7 4 5 10 -4 3 -3 5 LAND (KM) 1037 901 790 718 703 396 422 228 55 84 -8 -7 -10 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 24 25 25 24 24 22 19 14 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 8 33 37 28 31 28 19 21 35 0 0 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/07/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/07/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)