* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 48 53 57 59 61 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 48 53 57 59 61 61 54 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 56 58 59 51 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 5 8 10 21 22 31 23 31 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 9 9 8 4 2 1 1 4 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 5 293 278 310 295 310 297 299 295 293 289 306 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 136 137 137 141 145 144 145 151 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 148 148 151 148 149 152 149 147 149 148 145 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 58 60 61 59 55 58 61 62 66 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 48 41 36 32 10 7 -7 8 -19 -38 -57 200 MB DIV -14 -7 -9 -7 6 17 13 18 25 54 44 27 15 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -7 -4 4 9 8 27 18 20 12 0 LAND (KM) 1252 1083 932 821 729 674 364 444 228 61 22 -11 41 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 23 23 24 23 22 21 20 18 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 6 14 48 35 30 26 17 26 22 0 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/07/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/07/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)