* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 49 55 58 60 61 62 63 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 49 55 58 60 53 50 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 51 56 58 60 52 48 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 2 7 10 18 25 30 33 31 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 9 9 6 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 75 37 7 296 279 291 292 302 290 279 277 290 299 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 136 136 136 136 138 142 143 139 142 138 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 150 149 149 147 148 149 146 138 136 127 121 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 12 11 13 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 59 61 58 53 53 55 55 59 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 54 52 45 40 20 -4 -28 -25 -55 -78 -118 200 MB DIV -6 -13 -7 -10 -10 7 20 12 14 26 63 35 9 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -8 -6 0 16 10 16 36 9 9 4 LAND (KM) 1297 1251 1059 907 792 712 510 502 129 -29 69 190 282 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.5 12.0 13.5 15.3 16.9 18.7 20.4 22.1 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.7 41.0 43.3 45.7 48.0 52.8 57.2 61.5 65.5 69.1 71.9 73.9 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 24 24 24 24 23 22 20 18 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 6 4 7 21 28 32 29 17 62 36 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/07/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/07/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)