* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952013 07/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 47 53 58 60 63 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 47 53 58 60 63 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 43 47 51 54 54 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 4 2 9 9 20 20 32 26 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 6 8 6 4 2 0 -1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 39 68 27 356 252 292 298 305 292 293 294 295 282 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 138 136 136 137 137 140 144 145 147 151 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 153 151 150 150 147 148 151 151 151 152 152 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.8 -53.9 -54.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 58 60 62 62 58 60 60 60 64 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 65 63 55 54 45 43 16 16 4 19 -7 -8 200 MB DIV 0 -1 -8 -4 0 -5 25 0 27 23 58 45 50 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -7 -6 0 1 11 15 29 24 38 18 LAND (KM) 1296 1281 1237 1056 903 715 629 324 411 248 66 64 85 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 23 24 24 24 23 21 20 21 20 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 9 25 12 9 12 40 27 21 26 17 22 37 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 28. 33. 35. 38. 41. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 07/07/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 07/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)